Models for simulating the development of even-aged Pinus brutia stands in Middle East

Sergio de Miguel, Timo Pukkala, Zuheir Shater, Nabil Assaf, Bassel Kraid, Marc Palahí


Pinus brutia occurs in the Eastern Mediterranean region and is the most widespread conifer species in Middle East. It is important for multi-purpose forestry owing to its high ecological value and economic importance. To model the stand dynamics of P. brutia, 133 semi-permanent sample plots were placed in 10 to 166 year-old stands in Syria and Lebanon, covering the whole range of variation in site quality, stand age and stand density. Site index, distance-independent diameter increment, height and self-thinning models that included country effects were fitted to the data. The site index model was fitted using the guide curve method. The data for 10-year diameter growth model consisted of past growth measurements of all trees within the 133 plots. Diameter growth was modelled using variables representing site, size and competition. The self-thinning model was developed by estimating the maximum number of trees per hectare as a function of mean diameter and site index. These are the first cross-border models in Middle East enabling forest growth and yield predictions and stand dynamics simulations on an individual-tree basis. Such models will allow, with the aid of optimization techniques, finding the optimal forest management for P. brutia forests based on different management objectives.


individual-tree model; stand dynamics; global change; Mediterranean forestry; Syria; Lebanon

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DOI: 10.5424/fs/2010193-9046