Modeling the spatial distribution of crop cultivated areas at a large regional scale combining system dynamics and a modified Dyna-CLUE: A case from Iran

  • Iman Mesgari Iran University of Science and Technology, Dept. of Industrial Engineering. Narmak-Tehran, 1684613114
  • Mohammad Saeed Jabalameli Iran University of Science and Technology, Dept. of Industrial Engineering. Narmak-Tehran, 1684613114
Keywords: integrated modeling, land use, cropping pattern, system dynamics

Abstract

Agricultural land use pattern is affected by many factors at different scales and effects that are separated by time and space. This will lead to simulation models that optimize or project the cropping pattern changes and incorporate complexities in terms of details and dynamics. Combining System Dynamics (SD) and a modified Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE) modelling framework, this paper suggests a new dynamic approach for assessing the demand of different crops at country-level and for predicting the spatial distribution of cultivated areas at provincial scale. As example, a case study is presented for Iran, where we have simulated a scenario of future cropping pattern changes during 2015–2040.The results indicated a change in the spatial distribution of cultivated areas during the next years. An increase in the proportion of rice is expected in northern Iran, whereas the proportion of wheat is increasing in the mountainous western areas. Wheat and barley crops are expected to become dominant within the cropping system throughout the country regions.

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Published
2018-02-07
How to Cite
Mesgari, I., & Jabalameli, M. S. (2018). Modeling the spatial distribution of crop cultivated areas at a large regional scale combining system dynamics and a modified Dyna-CLUE: A case from Iran. Spanish Journal of Agricultural Research, 15(4), e0211. https://doi.org/10.5424/sjar/2017154-10630
Section
Agricultural engineering