Water requirements for wheat and maize under climate change in North Nile Delta
Abstract
Determination of water requirements for wheat and maize under climate change is important for policy makers in Egypt. The objectives of this paper were to calculate (i) ETo and (ii) water requirements for wheat and maize crops grown in five governorates (Alexandria, Demiatte, Kafr El-Sheik, El-Dakahlia and El-Behira) located in North Nile Delta of Egypt under current climate and climate change. ECHAM5 climate model was used to develop A1B climate change scenario in 2020, 2030 and 2040. Monthly values of evapotranspiration (ETo) under the different scenarios in these governorates were calculated using Hargreaves-Samani equation (H-S). Then, these values were regressed on ETo values previously calculated by Penman-Monteith equation (P-M) and linear regression (prediction equations were developed for each governorate). The predicted ETo values were compared to the values of ETo calculated by P-M equation and the deviations between them were very low (RMSE/obs=0.04-0.06 mm and R2 =0.96-0.99). Water requirements for wheat and maize were calculated using BISm model under current climate and in 2020, 2030 and 2040. The results showed that average annual ETo would increase by low percentage in 2020 and 2030. However, in 2040 the increase would reach 8%. Water requirements are expected to increase by 2-3% for wheat and by 10-15% for maize, which would result in reduction of the cultivated area. Thus, it is very important to revise and fix the production system of wheat and maize, in terms of the used cultivars, fertilizer and irrigation application to overcome the risk of climate change.Downloads
References
Abdrabbo M, Ouda S, Noreldin T, 2013. Modeling the irrigation schedule on wheat under climate change. Nature and Science 11(5): 10-18.
Abou Zeid K, 2002. Egypt and the world water goals. Egypt statement in the World Summit for Sustainable Development and Beyond, Johannesburg.
Allen RG, Jensen ME, Wright JL, Burman RD, 1989. Operational estimate of reference evapotranspiration. Agron J 81: 650-662. http://dx.doi.org/10.2134/agronj1989.00021962008100040019x
Allen RG, Pereira LS, Raes D, Smith M, 1998. Crop evapotranspiration: Guideline for computing crop water requirements. FAO Irrig Drain Paper No. 56, Roma.
Attaher S, Medany M, AbdelAziz AA, El-Gendi A, 2006. Irrigation- water demands under current and future climate conditions in Egypt. Proc 14th Annu Conf of the Misr Soc Agric Eng, pp: 1051-1063.
Blaney HF, Criddle WD, 1950. Determining water requirements in irrigated areas from climatological and irrigation data. USDA/SCS, SCS-TP 96.
Droogers P, Allen RG, 2002. Estimating reference evapotranspiration under inaccurate data conditions. Irrig Drain Syst 16(1): 33-45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1015508322413
Eid HM, 2001. Climate change studies on Egyptian agriculture. Soils, Water and Environment Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center, Egypt.
Gardner FP, Pearce RB, Mitchell RL, 1985. Physiology of crop plants. Iowa State University Press, Ames (IA), USA.
Hargreaves GH, 1994. Simplified coefficients for estimating monthly solar radiation in North America and Europe. Departmental Paper, Dept Biol Irrig Eng, Utah State Univ, Logan (UT), USA.
Hargreaves GH, Samani ZA, 1982. Estimating potential evapotranspiration, Tech. note. J Irrig Drain Div, ASCE 108 (3): 225-230.
Hargreaves GH, Samani ZA, 1985. Reference crop evapotranspiration from temperature. Appl Eng Agr 1(2): 96-99. http://dx.doi.org/10.13031/2013.26773
Hargreaves GH, Allen RG, 2003. History and evaluation of Hargreaves evapotranspiration equation. J Irrig Drain Eng 129(1): 53-63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9437(2003)129:1(53)
Ibrahim M, Ouda S, Taha A, El Afandi G, Eid SM, 2012. Water management for wheat grown in sandy soil under climate change conditions. J Soil Sci Plant Nutr 12(2): 195-210. http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0718-95162012000200001
IPCC, 2007. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 4th Assessment Report: Climate change 2007. Synthesis Report. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
Jamieson PD, Porter JR, Goudriaan J, Ritchie JT, van Keulen H, Stol W, 1998. A comparison of the models AFRCWHEAT2, CERES-Wheat, Sirius, SUCROS2 and SWHEAT with measurements from wheat grown under drought. Field Crops Res 55: 23–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4290(97)00060-9
Jones PG, Thornton PK, Heinke J, 2009. Generating characteristic daily weather data using downscaled climate model data from the IPCC's Fourth Assessment: Project Report.
Katerji N, Rana G, 2008. Crop evapotranspiration measurement and estimation in the Mediterranean region, INRA-CRA, Bari. ISBN 978 8 89015 2412.
Khalil AA, 2013. Effect of climate change on evapotranspiration in Egypt. Researcher 5(1): 7-12.
Khalil FA, Farag H, El Afandi G, Ouda SA, 2009. Vulnerability and adaptation of wheat to climate change in Middle Egypt. 13th Conf on Water Technol, 12-15 March, Hurghada, Egypt, pp: 71-88.
Monteith JL, 1965. Evaporation and environment. Symp Soc for Exp Biol: The State and Movement of Water in Living Organisms, Vol. 19 (Fogg GE, ed.), Academic Press, Inc, NY, USA. pp: 205–234.
Noreldin T, Ouda S, Abou Elenein R, 2013. Development of management practices to address wheat vulnerably to climate change in north Delta. 11th Int Conf on Development of Dry Lands. Beigin, China, 18-21 March.
Ouda S, Khalil F, Yousef H, 2009. Using adaptation strategies to increase water use efficiency for maize under climate change conditions. 13th Int Conf on Water Technology. Hurghada, Egypt. 12-15 March.
Ouda S, Sayed M, El Afandi G, Khalil F, 2010. Developing an adaptation strategy to reduce climate change risks on wheat grown in sandy soil in Egypt. 10th Int Conf on Development of Dry Lands. 12-15 December. Cairo, Egypt.
Ouda S, Khalil F, El Afendi G, Abd El-Hafez S, 2011. Prediction of total water requirements for agriculture in the Arab World under climate change. 15th Int Water Technol Conf, pp: 1150-1163.
Ouda S, Abdrabbo M, Noreldin T, 2012. Effect of changing sowing dates and irrigation scheduling on maize yield grown under climate change conditions. 4th Int Conf for Field Irrigation and Agricultural Meteorology. 5-7 November. Ameria, Egypt.
Roeckner E, Bäuml G, Bonaventura L, Brokopf R, Esch M, Giorgetta M, Hagemann S, Kirchner I, Kornblueh L, Manzini E, et al., 2003. The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5. Part I: Model description. MPI Report 349, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, 127 pp.
Samani Z, 2000. Estimating solar radiation and evapotranspiration using minimum climatological data. J Irrig Drain Eng 126 (4): 265–267. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9437(2000)126:4(265)
Sanchez P, Swaminathan MS, Dobie P, Yuksel N, 2005. Halving hunger: it can be done. UN Millennium Project, UNDP.
Sayed MAA, 2004. Impacts of climate change on the Nile Flows. Ain Shams, University, Cairo, Egypt.
Sepaskhah AR, Razzaghi FH, 2009. Evaluation of the adjusted Thornthwaite and Hargreaves-Samani methods for estimation of daily evapotranspiration in a semiarid region of Iran. Arch Agron Soil Sci 55 (1): 51-56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03650340802383148
Shahidian S, Serralheiro R, Teixeira JL, Santos FL, Oliveira MR, Costa J, Toureiro C, Haie N, Machado R, 2009. Drip irrigation using a PLC based adaptive irrigation system. WSEAS T Environ Develop 2 (5): 209-218.
Shahidian S, Serralheiro R, Serrano J, Teixeira J, Haie N, Francisco S, 2012. Hargreaves and other reduced-set methods for calculating evapotranspiration. In: Evapotranspiration – Remote sensing and modeling (Irmak A, ed.), InTech. Available in http://www.intechopen.com/books/evapotranspiration-remote-sensing-and-modeling/hargreaves-and-otherreduced-set-methods-for-calculating-evapotranspiration
Shideed K, Oweis T, Gabr M, Osman M, 1995. Assessing on-farm water use efficiency: a new approach. Ed. ICARDA/ESCWA, Aleppo, Syria, 86 pp.
Snyder RL, Orang M, Bali K, Eching S, 2004. Basic Irrigation Scheduling (BISm). Available in http://www.waterplan.water.ca.gov/landwateruse/wateruse/Ag/CUP/Californi/Climate_Data_010804.xls.
Snyder RL, Moratiel R, Zhenwei S, Swelam A, Jomaa I, Shapland T, 2011. Evapotranspiration response to climate change. Acta Hortic 922: 91-98.
Soliman ESA, Sayed M, Aty A, Nour El-Din MM, 2008. Application of regional climate models to test the impacts of land use change on basin hydro-climatology, a case study. Baro-Akobo Sobat Subbasin, Nile Basin Capacity Building Network Journal, August 2008. 122 pp.
© CSIC. Manuscripts published in both the printed and online versions of this Journal are the property of Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, and quoting this source is a requirement for any partial or full reproduction.
All contents of this electronic edition, except where otherwise noted, are distributed under a “Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International” (CC BY 4.0) License. You may read here the basic information and the legal text of the license. The indication of the CC BY 4.0 License must be expressly stated in this way when necessary.
Self-archiving in repositories, personal webpages or similar, of any version other than the published by the Editor, is not allowed.
